Sitemaps
Are We Growing or Just Getting Fat?
Let's Get Back to Our Why
Does Startup Success Validate Us Personally?
How We Secretly Lose Control of Our Startups
Should Kids Follow in Our Founder Footsteps?
The Evolution of Entry Level Workers
Assume Everyone Will Leave in Year One
Stop Listening to Investors
Was Mortgaging My Life Worth it?
What's My Startup Worth in an Acquisition?
When Our Ambition is Our Enemy
Are Startups in a "Silent Recession"?
The 5 Types of Startup Funding
What Is Startup Funding?
Do Founders Deserve Their Profit?
Michelle Glauser on Diversity and Inclusion
The Utter STUPIDITY of "Risking it All"
Committees Are Where Progress Goes to Die
More Money (Really Means) More Problems
Why Most Founders Don't Get Rich
Investors will be Obsolete
Why is a Founder so Hard to Replace?
We Can't Grow by Saying "No"
Do People Really Want Me to Succeed?
Is the Problem the Player or the Coach?
Will Investors Bail Me Out?
The Value of Actually Getting Paid
Why do Founders Suck at Asking for Help?
Wait a Minute before Giving Away Equity
You Only Think You Work Hard
SMALL is the New Big — Embracing Efficiency in the Age of AI
The 9 Best Growth Agencies for Startups
This is BOOTSTRAPPED — 3 Strategies to Build Your Startup Without Funding
Never Share Your Net Worth
A Steady Hand in the Middle of the Storm
Risk it All vs Steady Paycheck
How About a Startup that Just Makes Money?
How to Recruit a Rockstar Advisor
Why Having Zero Experience is a Huge Asset
My Competitor Got Funded — Am I Screwed?
The Hidden Treasure of Failed Startups
If It Makes Money, It Makes Sense
Why do VCs Keep Giving Failed Founders Money?
$10K Per Month isn't Just Revenue — It's Life Support
The Ridiculous Spectrum of Investor Feedback
Startup CEOs Aren't Really CEOs
Series A, B, C, D, and E Funding: How It Works
Best Pitch Decks Ever: The Most Successful Fundraising Pitches You Need to Know
When to Raise Funds
Why Aren't Investors Responding to Me?
Should I Regret Not Raising Capital?
Unemployment Cases — Why I LOOOOOVE To Win Them So Much.
How Much to Pay Yourself
Heat-Seeking Missile: WePay’s Journey to Product-Market Fit — Interview with Rich Aberman, Co-Founder of Wepay
The R&D technique for startups: Rip off & Duplicate
Why Some Startups Win.
Chapter #1: First Steps To Validate Your Business Idea
Product Users, Not Ideas, Will Determine Your Startup’s Fate
Drop Your Free Tier
Your Advisors Are Probably Wrong
Growth Isn't Always Good
How to Shut Down Gracefully
How Does My Startup Get Acquired?
Can Entrepreneurship Be Taught?
How to Pick the Wrong Co-Founder
Staying Small While Going Big
Investors are NOT on Our Side of the Table
Who am I Really Competing Against?
Why Can't Founders Replace Themselves?
Actually, We Have Plenty of Time
Quitting vs Letting Go
How Startups Actually Get Bought
What if I'm Building the Wrong Product?
Are Founders Driven by Fear or Greed?
Why I'm Either Working or Feeling Guilty
Startup Financial Assumptions
Why Every Kid Should be a Startup Founder
We Only Have to be Right Once
If a Startup Sinks, Founders Go Down With it
Founder Success: We Need a Strict Definition of Personal Success
Is Quiet Quitting a Problem at Startup Companies?
Founder Exits are Hard Work and Good Fortune, Not "Good Luck"
Finalizing Startup Projections
All Founders are Beloved In Good Times
Our Startup Culture of Entitlement
The Bullshit Case for Raising Capital
How do We Manage Our Founder Flaws?
What If my plan for retirement is "never retire"?
Startup Failure is just One Chapter in Founder Life
6 Similarities between Startup Founders and Pro Athletes
All Founders Make Bad Decisions — and That's OK
Startup Board Negotiations: How do I tell the board I need a new deal?
Founder Sacrifice — At What Point Have I Gone Too Far?
Youth Entrepreneurship: Can Middle Schoolers be Founders?
Living the Founder Legend Isn't so Fun
Why Do VC Funded Startups Love "Fake Growth?"
How Should I Share My Wealth with Family?
How Many Deaths Can a Startup Survive?
This is Probably Your Last Success
Why Do We Still Have Full-Time Employees?

Optimize for the Probability of Outcomes, Not Size

Wil Schroter

Optimize for the Probability of Outcomes, Not Size

Our Founder careers aren't defined by the size of our positive outcomes, they are defined by whether we've had one at all.

Therefore, if our outcomes are so important to us, shouldn't we first start with optimizing for the most likely outcome that will be meaningful to us? Is our idea more likely to become a $3 million business earning $1 million in profit or a $100 million business that could go IPO?

We need to start our journey, which implies an insane amount of tough decisions, aligning our path with outcomes that will not only be meaningful but those that we have the highest probability to achieve.

Optimizing for a Billion Dollars is Silly

To be fair, the "It has to be a billion dollars" is a mantra directly driven from the VC community, who has every reason to uphold that mantra. If I were a VC, I'd be saying the same thing, because that's how I make money.

But that mantra, when handed down to aspiring Founders, all of a sudden puts us on some artificial path of growth and outcomes that substantially increases our risk of losing everything. Said differently — we don't need a billion-dollar outcome — they do. Our lives could be changed by an entire spectrum of outcomes. Their lives are changed only by one. We're not aligned.

We can always Optimize Again

If we're so incredibly fortunate that we were able to create that $3 million business out of our idea, can't we just reset our goals at that point? Why wouldn't we fully optimize for the first achievable (meaningful) milestone, and then change those parameters (go bigger!) when and if we get there?

One of the things that we need to account for is that our early milestones ($250K per year of personal income) will change our lives. The following milestones ($500K, $1M, $10M) will change our lives as well, but only marginally more since the first money is where most of our living expenses are covered anyway. So we should optimize for each milestone progressively, relative to how important that next milestone is when it arrives.

Why bet the farm for $100 million if $1 million buys us 90% of what we'll ever want?

It Takes the Same Amount of Time

There's an argument that states "It takes the same amount of time to build a big business as it does a small business" which implies that if we're going to invest the time, we may as well optimize for a big outcome.
What that argument completely overlooks is the fact that the number of years of investment isn't the issue. It's a broken argument. The issue is whether or not those years yield anything to begin with.

What we should be saying is "If investing 7-10 years, what path would yield the highest probability to a meaningful outcome?" Taking that "big swing" may sound impressive, but if all we're doing is exponentially increasing the odds that we wind up with nothing, then what's the point?

My goal, fellow Founders, isn't to tell anyone whether they should build a big or small business. My goal is to get every Founder the most efficient path toward creating an outcome that actually happens.

In Case You Missed It

Optimize For Productivity. Working through peak productivity is easy. It’s the valleys that we’re concerned about. The key is to plan for and optimize the valleys so we can recharge effectively.

Don’t Work Long Hours, Work Efficient Hours. As Founders, we should stop being "long hours" champions and instead start being proud of how much we can do in as few hours as possible.

How Much Should I Be Working? (podcast) Wil and Ryan take a deep dive into the benefits of thinking quality and not quantity when it comes to your weekly punch card.

Find this article helpful?

This is just a small sample! Register to unlock our in-depth courses, hundreds of video courses, and a library of playbooks and articles to grow your startup fast. Let us Let us show you!


OR


Submission confirms agreement to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Already a member? Login

No comments yet.

Start a Membership to join the discussion.

Already a member? Login

Create Free Account