Really cool that you intuitively know to spent time investigating the probabilities before jumping into things. If there is a Startup Weekend near you do that - in 54 hours you will get to wrap a small team around the idea, learn + do customer validation an get expert help from local mentors. If that isn't a possibility, you could create a landing page that "sells" the idea as if it exists, then put a couple hundred behind targeted fb ads to see if you have something that people are interested in. At minimum, read Eric Reis' Lean Startup book to learn how to ensure you create a product that really fits a market. :) Get in touch if you want to chat more!