We Can't Predict the Future Anymore

The business of predicting the future is going out of business.

AI is making a mess of everything. No matter how good (or bad) you were at forecasting what’s next, you could always rely on a few basic assumptions.

You knew that you’d be hiring certain types of people. You knew where you’d be finding customers. You knew that if you built a product, it would be around long enough to sell it.

Now? WTF.

The Sands Are Shifting Too Fast

Now, if I build a product, I have no idea if I can pull traffic from Google, because I don’t even know if people will be using Google to search anymore (I don’t). When I go to build that product, I don’t know who I’m going to hire because AI now does the stuff I used to hire people for.

Even if I get the damn thing built, I have no idea if the function it serves is just a moment in time before the Borg that is AI turns it into a prompt response that used to be a whole business.

It’s hard enough to plan for the future when a single foundational change is being made, like when Google Search became dominant. But when all of them change and disappear overnight, things get gnarly fast.

Compounding Anxiety

That lack of certainty creates compounding anxiety everywhere, which creates a lot of problems in our world as Founders. When investors don’t know whether they are investing in a product or something that’s about to become a feature, it’s hard to make big bets.

When Founders are required to go all in on products and plans they can’t build with certainty, it’s hard to galvanize commitment. Even the people who want to work for startups aren’t really sure if the jobs they were hired for are still going to exist a year from now.

When everyone is only half committed because they can’t get comfortable with the future, the ecosystem itself breaks down. The more the ecosystem breaks down, the more anxious everyone gets.

Sprinting into the Abyss

The only spark of hope in all of this is that this is what we as Founders were built for. As a Founder for 30+ years who loves a wild ride, even I’m like, “OK, this is freaky!” But that’s OK. I was built for this, and so were you.

No one has an answer right now, and that’s OK. We’re all just going to be swinging in the dark for a while.

We can’t build four-year forecasts. We can’t build long product roadmaps. We can’t build strategic growth plans. All we can build is a plan that gets us to the next milestone. Just long enough to re-evaluate what the world looks like before we take the next step.

If you’re feeling unsettled and uneasy, that’s exactly how you should feel. That’s how everyone feels, whether they admit it or not. Yet we press on.

From Chaos, We Build

The thing is, it’s not just that we’re meant for chaos. It’s in chaos that we build incredible shit.

We do that because we have to. But we also do it because we are the builders of this world. Everything great in our society was built by the hands of Founders, out of nothing. Sometimes built in good times, sometimes in bad times.

And sometimes, like right this minute, out of complete and utter chaos. But no matter what these times bring, we build.

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